Cash flow optimal analysis on NPV risk based on break event point of various types of housing in housing development projects
AbstractCommunity's need for simple type of house is a problem for the government in order to improve the quality of life of the community. The developers or residential developers attempt to offer homes by making various types of homes that are of interest to the public is of high value, artistic as well as the acquisition of adequate benefits. On the other hand, the construction project is one of the temporary projects with a relatively high degree of uncertainty of risks compared to projects in the non-construction sector. The risk of time and cost risks on construction projects will ultimately lead to reduced profits, due to inaccurate regulation of cash flow optimally. The impact of the inaccuracy of the cash flow arrangement to housing investment has an effect on the very low profit gain so that it affects the quality of the house produced. This study aims to determine the optimal cash flow that can be planned in order to obtain optimum profit by taking into account the break-even point of sale of various types of homes in housing development in Denpasar so that obtained housing with adequate quality and affordable by the community. The research method begins with cost planning analysis, determining the cash flow scenario and break-even point analysis with the concept of cash flow to find the optimum profit. The results of the interim research resulted in the Break Event Point (BEP) cutoff point at the five alternative points at maximum capacity with the minimum Present Worth Cost (PWC) value in alternative 4 with the house type ratio of 1: 6: 3. This indicates the construction of housing with the number of luxury type house types larger than the middle house and the modest house resulting in a high PWC value. While the composition of the comparatively low and medium-sized homes larger than the luxury homes yields a relatively lower PWC value. Based on the feasibility indicator analysis, the Net Present Value (NPV) shows that the number of housing units and the combination of types of houses offered, as well as the local land market price, is very influential in the cash flow planning to obtain the optimal cash flow that yields the maximum NPV value. And from the result of project sensitivity analysis to the value of change of key variable, the project obtained is very sensitive to the type of housing with the number of housing units and the relatively small land price and the variables that are very influential on the sensitivity of the project feasibility value is the construction cost reaches 89.6% and first-year earnings reached 69.4%
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May 15, 2018
How to Cite
MAS PERTIWI, I Gusti Agung Istri et al. Cash flow optimal analysis on NPV risk based on break event point of various types of housing in housing development projects. Proceedings, [S.l.], v. 1, n. 1, p. 184-193, may 2018. Available at: <http://ojs.pnb.ac.id/index.php/Proceedings/article/view/864>. Date accessed: 25 apr. 2019.